Comments on: 5 causes just as likely as the one @danzarrella seemingly picked out of a hat http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/ Social media has rewritten the rules of access and influence forever. Fri, 11 May 2012 14:45:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Ian Greenleigh http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-193 Ian Greenleigh Thu, 15 Apr 2010 04:48:00 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-193 @jason t. "Further examination would probably verify that those who lack a profile picture value Twitter less and therefore use it less, which naturally means they would have fewer followers." You put it better than I ever could have. And, regarding your proposed study...he might actually be up for it, since he eventually RTd this very critique. Thanks for stopping by! @jason t.

“Further examination would probably verify that those who lack a profile picture value Twitter less and therefore use it less, which naturally means they would have fewer followers.”

You put it better than I ever could have.

And, regarding your proposed study…he might actually be up for it, since he eventually RTd this very critique.

Thanks for stopping by!

]]> By: Jason Thiede http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-192 Jason Thiede Tue, 13 Apr 2010 20:28:21 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-192 I suppose there is little to say that has not already been said. Further examination would probably verify that those who lack a profile picture value Twitter less and therefore use it less, which naturally means they would have fewer followers. If Ashton Kutcher were to remove his profile pic, I doubt his following would cease. On a lesser-known figure, the lack of an authentic profile pic may cause a would-be follower to doubt the legitimacy (or usefulness) of the account. That being said, I want to take a shot at the extra credit... If Dan has not already launched the following study, I am sure he soon will. There is a high correlation between people who use social media and have no idea who Dan is (unfortunate, really). Had more users of Twitter known Dan, they likely would have been inclined to update their profiles to include a photo so as to give him a better head count. Unfortunately, this was not the case. Since there is a high correlation of Dan tweeting his discoveries and his discoveries getting re-tweeted or blogged, it is likely that he will be re-tweeted enough to eventually know and be known by everyone on Twitter. At that time, when we have all begun using profile pics properly, Dan will find that there is a high correlation between using a profile pic and having both a strong and weak following on Twitter. Of course, this is only poking fun. I am fascinated by and grateful for the work Dan does. I suppose there is little to say that has not already been said. Further examination would probably verify that those who lack a profile picture value Twitter less and therefore use it less, which naturally means they would have fewer followers. If Ashton Kutcher were to remove his profile pic, I doubt his following would cease. On a lesser-known figure, the lack of an authentic profile pic may cause a would-be follower to doubt the legitimacy (or usefulness) of the account.

That being said, I want to take a shot at the extra credit…

If Dan has not already launched the following study, I am sure he soon will. There is a high correlation between people who use social media and have no idea who Dan is (unfortunate, really). Had more users of Twitter known Dan, they likely would have been inclined to update their profiles to include a photo so as to give him a better head count. Unfortunately, this was not the case. Since there is a high correlation of Dan tweeting his discoveries and his discoveries getting re-tweeted or blogged, it is likely that he will be re-tweeted enough to eventually know and be known by everyone on Twitter. At that time, when we have all begun using profile pics properly, Dan will find that there is a high correlation between using a profile pic and having both a strong and weak following on Twitter.

Of course, this is only poking fun. I am fascinated by and grateful for the work Dan does.

]]> By: Ian Greenleigh http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-190 Ian Greenleigh Mon, 12 Apr 2010 17:06:03 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-190 @jason- You're right, there's no easy way--but my point is that we shouldn't make statements like "effect on" if we haven't done the legwork, especially if there are many other likely explanations. @brian- So yes, ultimately proving this kind of thing without a doubt is nearly impossible, but this is a far cry from at least *looking* at other variables besides the one we come across first, or admitting that there are alternative explanations, neither of which Dan Zarrella has done. .-= Ian Greenleigh´s last blog ..<a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DareToComment/~3/hZQnn5yp4_Y/" rel="nofollow">5 causes just as likely as the one @danzarrella seemingly picked out of a hat</a> =-. @jason- You’re right, there’s no easy way–but my point is that we shouldn’t make statements like “effect on” if we haven’t done the legwork, especially if there are many other likely explanations.

@brian- So yes, ultimately proving this kind of thing without a doubt is nearly impossible, but this is a far cry from at least *looking* at other variables besides the one we come across first, or admitting that there are alternative explanations, neither of which Dan Zarrella has done.
.-= Ian Greenleigh´s last blog ..5 causes just as likely as the one @danzarrella seemingly picked out of a hat =-.

]]> By: Brian Wojcik http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-189 Brian Wojcik Sat, 10 Apr 2010 05:54:58 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-189 By the way for a VERY thorough statistical treatment of the effect of profile picture (in this case on a dating site) check out: http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/2010/01/20/the-4-big-myths-of-profile-pictures/ By the way for a VERY thorough statistical treatment of the effect of profile picture (in this case on a dating site) check out: http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/2010/01/20/the-4-big-myths-of-profile-pictures/

]]> By: Brian Wojcik http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-188 Brian Wojcik Sat, 10 Apr 2010 05:45:58 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-188 This kind of thinking of the evidentiary basis for belief seems to infiltrate science even at the highest level. You're left only with a correlation between your independent variables no matter how much you analyze the data. This is the bane of most of the social sciences. You really can't establish causality without a controlled double blind study. With twitter as the medium... I think such a study might be easy to put together. Ultimately though... I'm wondering if the set of twitter accounts without a profile picture is even statistically significant? --bjw This kind of thinking of the evidentiary basis for belief seems to infiltrate science even at the highest level.

You’re left only with a correlation between your independent variables no matter how much you analyze the data. This is the bane of most of the social sciences. You really can’t establish causality without a controlled double blind study.

With twitter as the medium… I think such a study might be easy to put together. Ultimately though… I’m wondering if the set of twitter accounts without a profile picture is even statistically significant?

–bjw

]]> By: Jason Crouch http://daretocomment.com/5-causes-just-as-likely-as-the-one-danzarrella-seemingly-picked-out-of-a-hat/#comment-187 Jason Crouch Sat, 10 Apr 2010 05:26:56 +0000 http://daretocomment.com/?p=369#comment-187 Ian - Although I am virtually certain that the initial fact as it's asserted here is true (those with pictures have way more followers), I agree wholeheartedly with you. You can't prove any causation. Instead, I would be willing to wager that your causes are more likely than the photo alone, with the possible exception of #4 on your list. There's no easy way to determine if the photo alone would make a difference, although I do tend to give less credence to those without an avatar of their own. Remember the "owl" default one that Twitter used to have? I like the multicolored birds better. :-) .-= Jason Crouch´s last blog ..<a href="http://jbcmedia.com/easter-fun-for-jenny/" rel="nofollow">Easter fun for Jenny!</a> =-. Ian – Although I am virtually certain that the initial fact as it’s asserted here is true (those with pictures have way more followers), I agree wholeheartedly with you. You can’t prove any causation. Instead, I would be willing to wager that your causes are more likely than the photo alone, with the possible exception of #4 on your list.

There’s no easy way to determine if the photo alone would make a difference, although I do tend to give less credence to those without an avatar of their own. Remember the “owl” default one that Twitter used to have? I like the multicolored birds better. :-)
.-= Jason Crouch´s last blog ..Easter fun for Jenny! =-.

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